The Simulated reality hypothesis


The simulation argument

Nick Bostrom proposed a trilemma in 2003:

  1. “The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage (that is, one capable of running high-fidelity ancestor simulations) is very close to zero”, or
  2. “The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running simulations of their evolutionary history, or variations thereof, is very close to zero”, or
  3. “The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.”

The simulation hypothesis is very similar to Zuse’s thesis, with the addition of a form of anthropic reasoning to argue that it has to be one of the three solutions above.

A corollary of this hypothesis is that AI is an achievable goal, because we have been created. Therefore it would be possible to think we could create one.

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